Twenty years ago when I started working at Outside magazine, I transcribed faxed story drafts into the computer because our office didn’t have external email. I read story edits on paper, which made the Number Two pencil the number one office tool. Jon Krakauer hadn’t yet climbed Mount Everest, “An Inconvenient Truth” was still 11 years away, and it was still possible to get lost in the wilderness without selfie documentation. My favorite piece of gear was a hot-pink, hard-tail Specialized Stumpjumper that cost approximately $8,800 less than the $9,300 S-Works Stumpjumper 29er advertised on Specialized’s website today. Instead of two short decades, it seems that eons have passed.What will the next 20 years bring? Considering that some people wonder if we’ll still have an inhabitable planet by the year 2047, it feels a little dubious to make any predictions beyond tomorrow. On the other hand, the future, as Eleanor Roosevelt once said, “belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.”I polled a few of the smartest people I know in the outdoor industry to find out what they think the future of travel, gear, and recreation holds. Then I added a few of my own predictions, ranging from fact-based reporting to pure fantasy, to create a list of 20. Some predictions may sound far-fetched, but the beauty of the future is that anything is possible—and nothing can be fact-checked.Outdoor Recreation “It is predicted that by 2050, 86 percent of the developed world will be urbanized with people living in dense communities. This shift will transform how we enjoy the outdoors. Close-to-home outdoor recreation will dominate. State and local governments will integrate parks, open space and trail systems into their city planning.” –Steve Barker, Interim Executive Director, Outdoor Industry Association“Outdoor recreation is going to continue its arc away from being just about big trips in remote wilderness and towards accessible experiences we can all have, even within cities. It has to go that way if we’re going to continue to engage new communities, from urban youth to urban professionals. Call it the democratization of adventure.” –Michael Roberts, Executive Editor, Digital Development, Outside MagazineGear“Light and fast will define the next 20 years of outdoor adventure and exploration. It will be the single biggest advancement to empower professional mountain athletes and dedicated global adventurers. With the ongoing evolution of outdoor products each season —from hard goods to performance apparel—that are weighing in lighter than ever before and creating more efficient systems, people are able to go greater distances in far less time, pushing the limits of what’s possible. Gear weight reduction alone in the past 20 years has allowed athletes to crash through their own (previous) training ceilings. Weight reduction and product innovation have opened the adventure door for the masses—not just a select few.”–Jordan Campbell, writer, mountaineer, filmmaker, and Marmot ambassador athlete“No matter if it is skiing, climbing, trail running or biking, gear will morph into a place where speed, lightness, technology, and performance will become one. The new GORE Surround technology (waterproof, breathable footwear with open construction on the bottom of the sole) is the perfect example of making something out of nothing.” –Eric Henderson, former backcountry ski guide for Jackson Hole Mountain Resort and communications manager for Salewa mountaineering products“Living in denser environments with less space will change how we buy products. Consumers will shift from a more, more, more mentality to buying less of higher quality items with more crossover lifestyle usages. There’s more opportunity to buy recycled and refurbished goods. This will be more important to future generations.” –Steve Barker“Sports like Nordic skiing that require snow have morphed into much less of a natural environment and more into a manufactured environment meant to look like what that natural environment used to be. You’re going to see reflections of that in the equipment: Ski bases will be more dirt repellent, poles will have reinforced tips to withstand the impact of shorter races, and ski waxes will be more concentrated around the freezing range because there’s more man-made snow and the temperature of man-made snow is right around freezing.” –Andrew Gardner, former Nordic skiing coach at Middlebury College and Nordic skiing PR professionalTravel“Well, I did try to acquire the URL www.timetravel.com, but the issuing organization would not sell it to me. No doubt because they know time travel is almost here and I would go back and create the Internet first! On a more serious note—the number of travelers, especially from Asia, is set to explode in volume. Destinations that do not take this seriously, starting now, will likely have significant problems with loss of both cultural authenticity and environment. In other words, those who plan for this volume now to spread it out, mitigate it, and control it will be the long-term winners. To do nothing is an active decision to have massive problems in 20 years.” –Shannon Stowell, President, The Adventure Travel Trade AssociationTechnology“Technology has already changed the ethos. Pure adventure will always be possible, especially with the absence of technology. But the combination of wireless communication and social media will continue to alter what the adventure finish line should look like. Some of it will be fantastic with real-time and enormous participation, but you can also count on some of it becoming utterly contrived and truly abhorrent. We will have to decide on what is real, genuine, and valued in our tribe—and what is not.” –Jordan CampbellGlobal Stewardship“The marriage of adventure with altruism will continue to play a more significant role in the 21st century. Giving back to underserved populations across the globe is part of a new moral imperative in the outdoor adventure space. It is no longer a sidebar activity for a dedicated few; rather it has become an end unto itself and part of the adventure space.” –Jordan Campbell, writer, filmmaker, and Marmot ambassador athleteSpirituality“I envision there will be a large resurgence back to nature similar to the Muir and Teddy Roosevelt era. Living in crowded environments with lives driven by electronics will create a strong desire for people across the country to go outside as a spiritual and health experience.” –Steve BarkerState of Mind“I still see adventure as a state of mind that constantly tugs at us to step into the unknown. That won’t change in the next 20 years. You either follow a script or you blaze your own trail.”–Jordan CampbellMy PredictionsSurfing the jet stream will normalize five-hour flights across the Atlantic. In January, a British Airways Boeing 777-200 made the New York to London route in five hours, 16 minutes, reaching ground speeds of up to 745 miles per hour by riding a powerful jet stream of up to 200 mile-per-hour tailwinds.Über Brands: With the recent unveiling of its “luxury hotels collection,” National Geographic is the latest publishing company that has taken branding to extreme heights: Fans can now view the world entirely through the National Geographic lens of magazines, books, websites, vacations, guides, and hotels. Hopefully Fox News will not be following suit.Two-Wheeled Transportation: Whether you prefer a 45-day, seven-country cycling trip from Paris to Moscow or sharing one of 66,500 public bicycles in Hangzhou, China, which has the largest bike-sharing system in the world, self-powered pedaling will change the way we get to work and see the world.The Bed-to-Bike-to-Work-to-Cocktails-to-Dinner-to-Bed Outfit: Natural and synthetic fabrics will be so sophisticated that they won’t wrinkle, smell from sweat, sag, or get dirty. And the blurred line between workout and work apparel will completely disappear.Lab-concocted, plant-protein-based performance meals will replace our favorite junk food.“Firsts” will become increasingly outrageous. Soon I’m expecting to see the first human summit of Mount Everest while simultaneously becoming the World Champion of Tom Clancy’s Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter video game.Need a tan in January? A bigger wave to surf? Not to worry. Perhaps only in my mind, personal weather-providing drones, programmable from snowstorm to 75-degree bluebird sky day, will be as ubiquitous as smart phones.Life on a planet we never knew existed: NASA predicts that we are within 20 years of finding evidence of extraterrestrial life. Let’s hope they are friendly.The Language of Adventure: If politicians, corporations, and private citizens don’t all do their part in shoring up climate change, the term “adventure” will soon become synonymous with “survival.”–S.P.
American College of Pediatricians’ 25 February 2019Family First Comment: If you are a parent who wants your teenager or child to grow up with a healthy, drug-free life, you are unfortunately in a kind of war zone. Why is it a war zone? Because there are many adults and teenagers who would promote marijuana and other drug use to young people. To help teens avoid the pitfalls of drugs in their youth, parents must take some pretty bold stands. Here’s the info you need – from concerned doctors….If you are a parent who wants your teenager or child to grow up with a healthy, drug-free life, you are unfortunately in a kind of war zone. Why is it a war zone? Because there are many adults and teenagers who would promote marijuana and other drug use to young people. To help teens avoid the pitfalls of drugs in their youth, parents must take some pretty bold stands. Marijuana is the most commonly used illegal drug for teenagers. (2) They are more likely to use marijuana than to use tobacco. (6) Marijuana’s effects lead to immediate and long-term problems of which many teens are unaware.How Many Teenagers are Using Marijuana?According to survey results in 2016, 38% of high school students report that they have used marijuana at some point in their life (1).Even more alarming, 68.9 % of high school seniors reported through survey that they do not think that regular marijuana smoking is harmful (2)!According to the National Institute on Drug Abuse for teens, “Recent public discussions about medical marijuana and the public debate over the drug’s legal status is leading to a reduced perception of harm among young people.” (2) The increased commonality of the drug may make it seem less threatening to teens. One-third of teenagers who smoke marijuana and that live in states with legalized medical marijuana use, obtain their marijuana from adults with prescriptions. Additionally, some teens think it can’t be very bad because it is “natural”, but many natural things like cocaine, heroin, and tobacco are far from safe. (2)Teenagers’ reported unawareness of the harm of marijuana has drastically increased since the 1980’s. The irony of this is that the harm and potency of marijuana has also increased since then. The concentration of THC (the chemical in marijuana that produces the most mind-alternating effects) is now about 3 times stronger than it was in the 1990’s! (2).Marijuana is Both Temporarily and Permanently Harmful to AdolescentsBecause adolescents’ brains are still developing, marijuana and other drug use can cause even more lasting damage to a teenage brain than to an adult user’s brain.Marijuana impairs adolescents working memory, problem solving, decision-making skills, and coordination. (2) When using marijuana, a person’s heart rate increases, causing the heart to work harder, causes difficulty in sensory perception, and creates breathing problems. (3) Marijuana decreases motivation, can lead to confusion and anxiety, even panic attacks, and often results in personality changes. (6)For adolescents, there is research showing that marijuana use alters the structure and chemical composition of the brain, and IQ, in a way that can be permanent.Adolescents who use marijuana are more likely to get lower grades, drop out of school, have physical and mental health problems, struggle with relationships, and have less future career success. (4) They are at increased risk for suicide and to develop psychoses. (6)Signs of marijuana use include (6):silly behavior and frequent laughing associated with the “high” created by THC,red eyes or eye dryness,increased appetite,irritabilitylack of motivation, reduced interest in thingstrouble with memorysmell on clothes or use of deodorizersdizzinessUnexplained money or stolen money How Can We Make a Difference?Research shows that children who report that their parents have serious conversations with them about drugs are around 50% less likely to abuse drugs. (5) It is essential to start early in explaining to children the consequences of marijuana use. Be open with them and listen to them.Children whose parents use illegal drugs or who are addicted to cigarettes or alcohol are more likely to do the same. Taking steps to quit has great benefits for your child.Helping your child to be involved in an extracurricular activity or hobby is a great way to give them a place to make good friends, offer them motivation to take care of themselves, and increase their confidence.Teenagers who are depressed or dealing with trauma are more likely to abuse drugs. (4) Help them to find appropriate outlets or professional counseling to deal with the normal emotional strain of adolescence and any chronic conditions they may have.https://www.acpeds.org/what-parents-should-know-about-marijuanaKeep up with family issues in NZ. Receive our weekly emails direct to your Inbox.
The Badgers will play their third game of the season Saturday when they host Bowling Green, entering the game with a record of 2-1 after easily defeating Western Illinois two weeks ago with a bye this past weekend.The Badgers will not be overlooking Bowling Green, especially since the Falcons upset the Indiana Hoosiers last week in a 45-42 shootout.At his Monday press conference, Wisconsin head coach Gary Andersen made it clear that he expects this Saturday’s game to be a difficult test against a quality opponent.“It’ll be a big challenge for us,” Andersen said. “Defensively, we’re going to have to be on our toes and take care of business. We need to get back to playing solid, consistent offense and we expect to play that way against a defense that’s going to be very aggressive.”Andersen described Bowling Green as an opponent that plays at as fast a pace on offense and uses a lot of blitzing.However, the Badgers’ head coach was confident that his team is ready for the style of football that the Falcons will throw at them.“We’ve practiced against pace, we’ll continue to, and we can’t allow their pace to affect the game in a positive way,” Andersen said. “It causes some issues, but we’ve got to be prepared for it.”In their 37-3 rout of Western Illinois in game two, the Badgers did many things well, but running the ball was not one of them.Star running back and Heisman hopeful Melvin Gordon had an underwhelming performance against the Leathernecks, as the Badgers did not have the same success on the ground that they have become so accustomed to over the years. Despite averaging 7.8 yards per carry over his career and 8.8 yards per carry in Wisconsin’s first game against LSU, Gordon averaged only 2.2 yards on 17 carries against Western Illinois.“Your goal is to find a way to split the defense in half and we weren’t able to do that until late in the third quarter and a few of those runs in the fourth quarter,” Andersen said.Without a game this past weekend, the Badgers have had two weeks of practice to work on getting the running game back on track, and Andersen admitted Monday that they are focused on running the ball better, knowing that it will be important in order to get a win against a tough team Saturday.“We want to run the ball better than we did against Western [Illinois],” Andersen said. “Do we expect to run the ball better this week than we did in week two? Yes, we do, and I’m sure Bowling Green is going to load up the box and challenge us to run the ball effectively.”Unlike the running game, Wisconsin’s passing attack increased dramatically in their second game as quarterback Tanner McEvoy appeared to finally get into a rhythm and look comfortable throwing the ball. After a poor first game against LSU when he had just 50 yards through the air, McEvoy played much better against Western Illinois, throwing for 283 yards and three touchdowns while giving the ball away only once on an interception.Wisconsin will need McEvoy to keep progressing in order to beat Bowling Green and lead the Badgers to a successful season. While Andersen said he still wants his mobile quarterback to use his legs when the time calls for it, the Badgers’ head coach thinks one area for improvement that would allow McEvoy to develop further would be to utilize his ability to throw downfield when it is open.“I’m not asking him to [become a pocket passer],” said Andersen. “But we want him to hang in there, let the offensive line do their work and throw the ball down the field when the opportunity is given.”Along with McEvoy, a big reason for the much-improved passing game in week two was the breakout performance of wide receiver Alex Erickson, a former walk-on, who caught 10 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown against Western Illinois.Andersen said Monday that he expects Erickson to continue to emerge as a reliable target, especially since he will be heavily counted on to help McEvoy maintain a strong attack through the air.“He’s so detailed, and he’s so smart and so competitive, a lot of times that’s a vicious combination,” Andersen said of his receiver. “I really think his expectations for him is to be a great receiver, not a good receiver and he took some good steps toward that in game two.”Wisconsin will be looking to have both dimensions clicking in the same game for the first time this season and avoid becoming the second Big Ten team in consecutive weeks to be upset by Bowling Green.The two teams will kick off at 11 a.m. at Camp Randall Stadium and the game will be broadcasted on ESPN2.