first_imgBIS Oxford Economics says Brisbane’s inner city apartment sector is the most oversupplied in Australia. Picture: Richard WalkerBRISBANE’S inner city apartment sector is now the most oversupplied market in Australia and is at risk of inflicting “collateral damage” on house prices, according to a leading economic forecaster.The latest predictions from BIS Oxford Economics paint a bleak picture of the outlook for the city’s property market, with median apartment prices forecast to fall another 7 per cent over the next three years.Its Residential Property Prospects 2017 to 2020 report released today reveals unit development accounted for 46 per cent of Queensland’s new dwelling starts in the four years to 2015/17, compared to 32 per cent in the prior five years. BIS Oxford Economics senior manager Angie Zigomanis.BIS Oxford Economics senior manager Angie Zigomanis said Queensland’s employment outlook was likely to improve and population growth to strengthen in the next three years, allowing for some modest house price growth.Brisbane’s median house price is predicted to rise 7 per cent by 2020.Mr Zigomanis said Brisbane’s price advantage over the southern capitals also made it attractive from an affordability perspective.All capital city housing markets are predicted to weaken next financial year as a result of further lending restrictions to investors and rising new stock levels.Sydney’s median house price of $1.2 million is forecast to fall five per cent over the next two financial years. BIS Oxford Economics’ latest report predicts inner Brisbane apartment prices to fall 7 per cent by 2020.BIS Oxford Economics managing director Robert Mellor said there were likely to be flow on effects for house price growth in Brisbane as potential buyers opted for apartments over houses or elected to rent for longer periods rather than buy to capitalise on discounted rents. Fancy a freebie with your new apartment? Buyers pick up bargains as Brisbane unit sales slump “My worry for Brisbane is you’ll get some overhang in the housing market because if developers are sitting there with 10 to 20 per cent of stock on hold, some of them are going to be doing good discounts on their prices,” Mr Mellor said.“That’s where we get a bit nervous. There’ll be a proponent of first home buyers that would rather buy a bargain apartment than an established house.“There’s a real risk of potentially … contagion.”center_img BIS Oxford Economics predicts Brisbane’s apartment oversupply could impact house prices.More from newsMould, age, not enough to stop 17 bidders fighting for this home4 hours agoBuyers ‘crazy’ not to take govt freebies, says 28-yr-old investor4 hours agoHe said the inner Brisbane apartment market in the next financial year alone would see about six times the average level of completions seen in the two decades leading up to 2015.“Over the next six to 12 months, we’ll see reality set in and things will deteriorate rapidly,” Mr Mellor said.“I think there will be some collateral damage that might impact on high and medium density in the suburbs.” GET THE LATEST REAL ESTATE NEWS DIRECT TO YOUR INBOX HERE BIS Oxford Economics estimates 6500 apartments will have been completed in inner Brisbane by the end of this financial year.It predicts another 9100 apartments will have been completed by the end of 2017/18 and yet another 6500 the following fiscal year.And he doesn’t expect supply to be absorbed before 2021.The report found house price growth in Brisbane has been patchy, with the median house price of an estimated $550,000 remaining below its June 2010 peak in real terms.But there is some good news to take out of the report.last_img read more