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Buster Posey Has Quietly Become A Lock For Cooperstown

A few names come to mind when pondering the surefire Hall of Famers playing baseball today. Adrian Beltre, who recently broke the 3,000-hit barrier, is one, as is Mike Trout, despite his youth. But there’s another all-time great who is toiling away on one of the worst teams in MLB: San Francisco Giants catcher Buster Posey. The Giants’ record might make Posey easy to overlook, but his combination of hitting and defense makes him almost a lock to one day join the Hall. In fact, despite being only 30 years old, Posey might already have a Hall of Fame résumé if he retired today.It’s difficult to forecast whether any given catcher will find his way to Cooperstown. Only 18 backstops have made the Hall, and some did so in part because of accomplishments after their playing careers (as managers or executives).1For example, Rick Ferrell is listed by Baseball-Reference.com as having been inducted as a player, but he produced only 29.8 wins above replacement in his career (34th on the all-time list of catchers). However, Ferrell won two championships as an executive before his induction, which probably helped his Hall-of-Fame case. Perhaps because of the strain of constant crouching and the beatings they receive behind the plate, catchers are notoriously quick to decline, and historically great performers can become merely ordinary in the space of a few years.But Posey is special. In a nine-year career, he’s already amassed 37.5 wins above replacement (WAR),2According to Baseball Reference.com. which puts him 25th on the all-time list among backstops. If we look at how productive all catchers have been through age 303That is, up to and including a player’s age-30 season as defined by Baseball-Reference. — Posey’s current age — he looks even better, ranking 11th all-time in WAR.According to Jay Jaffe’s JAWS, a rough guide to measuring a player’s Hall-of-Fame qualifications,4JAWS (the “Jaffe WAR Score system”) determines Hall-worthiness by comparing an average of a player’s career WAR and his WAR in his seven best seasons with the typical mark for a Hall member at his position. Posey would have a decent chance to make the Hall even if he never played another game. I looked at the top 500 catchers’ JAWS scores and used them to calculate the probability that they would one day be inducted into the Hall.5I used a logistic regression model, with JAWS score as a predictor and Hall of Fame induction as the outcome. I excluded catchers who made the Hall as managers but not as players. Posey’s JAWS score is 36.8 — already only a little below the catcher average of 43.9. (Coincidentally, Posey’s current JAWS score is identical to the end-of-career score of stalwart backstop Ernie Lombardi, who made the Hall of Fame.) Based on this analysis, Posey would have about a 29 percent chance of getting to Cooperstown if he retired today — and as we’ll see below, those numbers probably understate Posey’s contributions.Why is Posey’s résumé so strong? It starts with his impressive numbers at the plate. Since 2009, Posey’s first season in MLB, he has the 17th-highest Weighted Runs Created Plus in baseball, and he’s the only full-time catcher in the top 50. Posey has power, to which his 128 home runs (in one of MLB’s least hitter-friendly ballparks) can attest. He also has patience, with a career walk rate of 9.6 percent, well above the MLB average of 8.1 percent.But Posey is much more than just a catcher who hits well. In addition to his power and discipline, Posey has been one of the best defensive catchers in baseball during his career — thanks to his particular knack for pitch framing.Catcher framing is the art of receiving a pitch so that an umpire is more likely to call it a strike. Before the debut of pitch-tracking technology such as PITCHf/x and Statcast, the idea of framing as a skill was unproven, but now it can be measured. And as Hall-of-Fame voters increasingly understand and recognize the importance of framing, catchers like Posey will probably benefit.Baseball Prospectus rates Posey as the seventh-best framer since 1988,6That’s the first year for which those statistics can be calculated. so he’s among the cream of the crop. And because framing isn’t factored into most versions of wins above replacement, Posey is somewhat underrated even by newfangled Hall-of-Fame yardsticks like JAWS.Baseball Prospectus’s version of WAR incorporates the number of runs a catcher saves via framing (which the version from FanGraphs does not, and the version from Baseball-Reference accounts for in a much smaller way).7The Baseball-Reference metric for catcher defense has a much smaller range of framing values than Baseball Prospectus’s does. For instance, it assigns Posey only 54 runs of value from his defense over the course of his career, while BP puts the value from Posey’s framing alone at nearly double that (104 runs). Unsurprisingly, Posey’s value under that measure is higher, shooting up to 49.8 WAR. If we recalculate his JAWS score using Prospectus’s version of WAR, then, Posey is already good enough to have an 85 percent chance of making the Hall, according to my calculations. Now, Posey’s framing value this year has been minimal, so it’s possible that he’s losing his touch (he wouldn’t be the only older catcher to forget how to frame a pitch). But even if you assume that he will be a league-average framer going forward, Posey’s JAWS could end up high enough to practically guarantee a Hall of Fame induction.8This is based on a series of career simulations described later in the article.In some ways, comparing Posey with the historic greats of yesteryear in this manner isn’t fair. We don’t know what kind of framer Johnny Bench was, for example, and it’s possible that his already-tremendous WAR total would just get more inflated if we did. But we do know that it’s rare for a catcher to have both offensive ability and framing skills. (The few catchers better than Posey defensively tend to be specialists like Jose Molina and Brad Ausmus.) Conversely, there are a lot of catchers who are not great framers but nonetheless have long careers because they excel at the plate. So it’s likely that at least some of the catchers ahead of Posey on the all-time list would see their total value decline if we could measure their framing ability.Add it all up, and Posey has likely already had a Hall-of-Fame career. And his playing days probably won’t end anytime soon — the average catcher who had 20 or more WAR through age 30 ended up playing another six and a half seasons. So Posey has plenty of years to improve upon his already impressive career. To get a sense of how Posey might end up finishing his run, I asked the folks at Out of the Park Baseball — a baseball simulation engine — to game out the rest of his career. Out of the Park came back with four simulations of Posey’s future. And according to each, the hypothetical Busters fared very well. In each simulation, Posey earned an end-of-career JAWS score of greater than 51, which would give him at least a 90 percent chance of making the Hall, according to my calculations. With an average of about 2,000 hits, 400 doubles and 250 home runs, Posey’s milestones weren’t overly impressive, so he didn’t make the Hall on the first ballot in the simulations — it usually took three to four years for him to get in — but he was eventually inducted in each universe that was played out. That sounds pretty similar to what will happen in our universe, too.Posey is one of the few catchers in history who can do it all. He can hit and frame, and he even provides extra value by blocking errant pitches and throwing out runners. When you combine his offensive and defensive skills, Posey might just be the most underappreciated Hall of Famer playing today.CORRECTION (Aug. 24, 10:02 a.m.): An earlier version of this article incorrectly said that Baseball-Reference.com’s version of wins above replacement does not incorporate the number of runs saved via catcher framing. It does, although Baseball-Reference’s method assigns less value to framing than Baseball Prospectus’s version of WAR does. read more

CTran fares to increase Monday

first_imgC-Tran fares will increase for the seventh consecutive year on Monday.The cost of a single adult C-Zone fare, covering trips within Clark County, will jump from $1.70 to $1.75. C-Van, the agency’s reservation-based service for disabled riders, will also cost $1.75 per ride. A monthly C-Zone pass will cost $61, up from $60.Single-ride fares for C-Tran’s Express service to Portland will increase from $3.60 to $3.75. A monthly Express pass will cost $122.A single All-Zone fare, covering regular trips to Portland, will remain unchanged at $2.50. Discounted fares for youths and seniors will also stay the same.The C-Tran board of directors approved the fare increases in May to take effect Sept. 1.last_img read more

Calling all Marvel fans We want to see your fandom collection

first_img Avengers: Endgame — Everything you need to know Show Us Yours: Marvel fandom pictures from our readers 1 49 Photos Now playing: Watch this: 2:09 Don’t mind the Star Wars and DC figures, this CNET family member is punching above his weight for the Marvel gang! Lee Koo/CNET A wild ride is on its way for Marvel fans.We’re finally getting to see Captain Marvel’s origins and just how powerful she is. And in two short months, we’ll see Avengers: Endgame hit the big screen. The latter has many fans waiting (or dreading) to see how the Avengers’ storyline wraps, with some probably hoping Thanos gets what’s coming to him after decimating half of all life in the galaxy.If you’re anything like us here at CNET, you’re counting down the seconds until you can see how it all concludes, so this is something to help pass that time in between Captain Marvel and Endgame.Forming our own super team with GameSpot, TV Guide, TechRepublic, ZDNet, we’re curious to see just how big of Marvel fans our readers are. Maybe you own a replica of Cap’s shield. Or your very own Spidey-suit. Even a homemade collection of your own Infinity Stones. Anything under the Marvel umbrella, we want to see it. So don’t be shy! Whether it’s pictures of your comic book collection, action figures, posters, costumes, perhaps even a Marvel shrine, submit them in the form below so we can showcase them for all to see.Check out the gallery below of the photo submissions we’ve gathered so far, just to get an idea of how it works. We don’t care if you’ve got high-end stuff, or if that stuff has seen better days, we just want to show off the fandom. Once we gather your submissions, we will continuously update the photo gallery for all to see!  So, get out that camera and start snappin’. We can’t wait to see what you have for us! Comment Tags Some tips for submission:The pictures. At least one photo of your Marvel collection (see above for ideas). Feel free to include yourself in the photos if you wish. Images need to be in horizontal (landscape) format, and each photo should not exceed 3MB in size, but the higher the resolution the better. You can submit up to four images.The captions. For each photo you submit, write a sentence or two about your prized Marvel possessions and let us know what makes them special to you. We appreciate detail and would love to know everything we can about your gear.After submitting your photos don’t forget to hit the comment section and tell us who you favorite Marvel superhero is and why! Share your voice TV and Movies Comics Captain Marvel Marvel The Avengerslast_img read more

Rape victim gathers courage to file case

first_imgA garment factory worker along with three of her friends visited Patenga sea beach in Chittagong over the weekend and were returning home by bus.At around 8.30pm, her friends got off the bus, 20 kilometres away from Patenga. She continued on her way to Moulvipukur at Chandgao, about two kilometres away.After dropping off some of the passengers at Baddarhaat, the conductor of the bus closed all the windows and the door of the bus.All on a sudden, he took out a knife and raped her. After that, he took over the steering wheel and the bus driver raped her. The incident took place on 27 October, but wasn’t made public.The victim remained silent for seven days after her rape. After discussing the matter with her family, she finally filed a case against the bus driver and conductor on 3 November with the Chandgao police station.The police arrested the driver Rashedul Islam, 20, and the conductor Imtiaz Uddin, 18, on 4 November. Both of them admitted their crime at the court of Chittagong metropolitan magistrate Nazmul Hossain Chowdhury.On 13 September, a housewife from Lohagora was victim of attempted rape on a running bus. On 25 August, a girl was raped and killed by five transport workers and a conductor at Modhupur in Tangail.The garment worker rape victim told Prothom Alo on Sunday that she works at a factory in Kalurghat of Chittagong city. She was terrified after the incident and remained home for a while. She used to live at her sister’s place in the city. She finally gathered courage to file a case against the rapists.The officer in charge of Chandgao police station said that they could identify the rapists by the description given by the victim. On Saturday, the rapists were arrested from Baddarhaat area, where they confessed, and issued their statements in court.*This piece, originally published in the Prothom Alo Bangla, rewritten in Englishlast_img read more

City Council Getting Back To Normal

first_imgIt was a busy week for members of the Baltimore City Council. In the aftermath of the riots they could be seen during television interviews on channels from MSNBC to CNN, talking about what is next for Baltimore, how the city is holding up and what the large peaceful rallies held over the weekend meant.Councilman Brandon M. Scott, District 2, has been at the forefront of calling on members of the community to be responsible and show one another love. He is calling for City Council hearings on the safety of the police wagon fleet. His resolution calls for Anthony Batts, police commissioner, to appear before the City Council and discuss how people transported in police wagons can be kept safer. Freddie Gray, of course, was severely injured while being transported in a police wagon. The resolution was adopted by the City Council and now goes to the Police Department for their response.The other notable piece of news from last week’s City Council meeting was a resolution introduced by Bill Henry, District 4, seeking to call on Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake to increase funding for Community Schools. There are 20 Community Schools in Baltimore in each district except for District 8. Community Schools offer additional resources for students as well as the surrounding community. These resources can range from increased mental health care and help for homeless families to health screenings, among others.Community Schools currently receive $6 million in funding and the resolution calls for an increase to $10 million.last_img read more

Thai high in Delhi

first_imgA five-day event Thailand Trade Exhibition 2014 has been organised in the Capital by Department of International Trade Promotion Thailand (DITP) that started off on 3 September at DLF Place Saket. The show provides a trade opportunity for both the countries. The event was inaugurated by Chalit Manityakul Ambassador, Royal Thai Embassy. It showcases rich plethora of Thai activities and products like cultural dance, home decorative, gem and jewellery, educational toys, health and beauty and flowers.Chalit Manityakul said, ‘We are glad to organise this fair.as it has given us a great opportunity to showcase our exciting range of products to discerning buyers and sellers. With this platform, we hope to create more awareness amongst our target audiences and benefit from B2B interactions and meetings as well’.last_img read more

Bookworms are usually friendlier

first_imgIn some good news for bookworms, scientists have found that people who regularly read fiction novels are more likely to be friendly, well-behaved and sympathetic towards others.Those who prefer watching television over reading are less sociable, according to the study. Those who like reading of drama and romance novels were best able to understand other people, while those who preferred experimental books showed more positive social behaviour and ability to see things from different perspectives. Also Read – Add new books to your shelf”The findings support previous evidence that exposure to fiction relates to a range of empathetic abilities,” said Rose Turner, from Kingston University in the UK.Researchers at Kingston University questioned 123 people on their preferences for books, TV and plays.The volunteers were then tested on their interpersonal skills and prosocial behaviour – such as whether they considered other’s feelings, whether they could see things from different points of view and whether they acted to help others. Also Read – Over 2 hours screen time daily will make your kids impulsiveResearchers found people who preferred reading novels were more likely to show positive social behaviour and be able to empathise with others.However, those who preferred watching TV did not have the same ability to empathise and were more likely to show antisocial behaviour.Comedy fans scored the highest for being able to relate to others, The Sun reported.Researchers suggest that this could be because reading books allow people to see things from other’s points of view, which makes them better able to understand others.”All forms of fiction are not equal. Associations between empathetic skills, media and genre diverge,” said Turner.”Engaging with fictional prose and comedy in particular could be key to enhancing people’s empathetic abilities,” she said.last_img read more